David Park

David Park, Chief Revenue Officer at Conduit AI, sits down to discuss forecasting philosophy and why accuracy sometimes means admitting uncertainty.

**On traditional forecasting:** "When I was at my last company, we built this incredible forecast model. Regression analysis, historical data, the whole thing. We were so proud of it. And it was completely wrong about the future."

**The insight:** "The best forecast I ever built was the one I threw away. We realized we were optimizing for the appearance of precision instead of managing risk."

**What changed:** "Now we forecast in ranges. Best case, base case, downside case. And we spend most of our energy on the downside case because that's where you find the real levers—the things you can actually control."

**On forecasting accuracy:** "Accuracy is overrated. What matters is not being surprised. If you're honest about the range of outcomes, you can actually prepare for them."

**For growing sales teams:** "Build your forecast to help you make decisions, not to impress your board. The companies that win are the ones that can forecast badly and still keep moving."

**Looking ahead:** "We're moving into an era where sales is going to be less about optimism and more about realism. That's good news for disciplined operators."